Seasonal predictability of baroclinic wave activity

Abstract Midlatitude baroclinic waves drive extratropical weather and climate variations, but their predictability beyond 2 weeks has been deemed low. Here we analyze a large ensemble of simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) demonstrate that seasonal variations wave activity (BWA) are potentially predictable. This potential is denoted robust BWA responses to SST forcings. To probe regional sources the predictability, regression analysis applied SST-forced simulations. By filtering out variability internal atmosphere land, this identifies both well-known unfamiliar forcings across latitudes. Finally, confirm model-indicated showing an operational prediction system can leverage some identified SST-BWA relationships achieve skillful predictions BWA. Our findings help extend long-range statistics events impacts.